Over the last few decades, technological breakthroughs such as the Internet, Wireless Broadband, and AI have redefined the rules of engagement, compelling businesses to rethink and recalibrate their strategies for the future. Quantum computing is poised to emerge as one of the most promising – and perplexing – transformative innovations of our time. While still nascent, it will revolutionize industries by solving problems currently intractable to classical computers. From optimizing supply chains and enhancing drug discovery to fortifying cybersecurity, its potential is as boundless as the quantum states themselves.

Through this article, we share a BCG framework to help readers evaluate the transformative impact of quantum technology on their organization and assess their readiness to embrace it, using a dedicated questionnaire. First, let’s explore how quantum technology positions itself within the business landscape.

Separating Fact from Fiction

Quantum computing represents a fundamental shift in computational capabilities. Its ability to address complex problems through optimization and simulation positions it as uniquely suited to challenges that classical systems and even supercomputers cannot handle. While quantum computing is not positioned to replace traditional computing, it complements classical systems by addressing challenges that are beyond their capabilities.

Contrary to perceptions that quantum computing is decades away, early applications are already appearing. For example, Microsoft’s Azure platform incorporates hybrid-quantum capabilities, enabling businesses to secure data against future threats. Organizations can access advanced quantum capabilities without owning quantum hardware, making the technology increasingly practical and accessible.

From a business perspective, understanding that quantum technology does not require billion-dollar investments is crucial. Businesses can explore quantum solutions with minimal resources, paving the way for innovation while avoiding excessive costs.This accessibility positions quantum computing as a practical and immediate enabler across industries, particularly for niche applications where its unique advantages can be fully leveraged.

It is equally important to acknowledge the current limitations of quantum computing. Today’s quantum systems are highly specialized and suited to solving very specific problems using tailored algorithms. Unlike a general-purpose computer, a quantum computer functions more like a dedicated machine optimized for particular tasks. We are still far from achieving a generic quantum computer akin to a personal computer that can handle a wide range of tasks.

Unlocking Unprecedented Business Value

Because of its unique advantage in solving complex problems that are impractical or would require vast amounts of time for classical technologies to address, quantum computing offers transformative benefits across multiple areas such as simulation, optimization, machine learning, and cryptography. Its core value propositions lie in:

Quantum computing’s potential can drive innovation and improve our ability to identify and address complex risks. Advanced simulations could have helped prevent disasters like the Challenger explosion or provided earlier warnings for tsunamis. By enhancing risk identification capabilities, quantum computing enables smarter decisions, giving organizations a valuable edge.

From a quantitative perspective, the Oil & Gas industry sees the greatest added value in two key areas of the value chain: “exploration and production” and “refining.” For context, the International Energy Forum projects upstream Oil & Gas Capex to exceed $600 billion¹ in 2024, for the first time in a decade. Conservative projections suggest that the introduction of quantum capabilities could improve exploration and production processes by 1–5%, representing potential cost savings of $6–30 billion². Similarly, in the refining segment, where average capital expenditures in 2023 were $71³ billion, quantum capabilities could enhance processes by 3–10%, translating to estimated savings of $2.13–7.10 billion⁴.

1. Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook – A report by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights
2. BCG Analysis based on experts interviews
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration
4. BCG Analysis based on experts interviews

Drawing on expert interviews and insights from the IBM study Exploring Quantum Computing Use Cases for Logistics, we’ve quantified the transformative potential of quantum capabilities across three key logistics areas: “last mile delivery,” “disruption management,” and “sustainable maritime routing.” For last mile delivery, a market projected to grow from $40.7B in 2022 to $86.2B by 2032, quantum-enabled process improvements of 1–3% could unlock $400M–1.2B in value.⁵ In disruption management, where annual losses amount to $184M, improvements of 1–5% could save $1.8–10M. In sustainable maritime routing, optimizing a $150B container shipping market could reduce empty shipping by 1–5%, unlocking $1.5–7.5B.⁶ These figures, combined with gains in efficiency, recovery time, and sustainability, highlight the game-changing potential of quantum technologies.

5. IBM Study, IBM Institute for Business Value, Exploring quantum computing use cases for logistics
6. BCG Analysis based on experts interviews

Quantum Computing’s Impact on Cryptography

Quantum computing poses significant risks to modern cryptographic systems. Asymmetric encryption is particularly vulnerable, as quantum algorithms enable decryption at unprecedented speeds, rendering many traditional methods obsolete. While symmetric encryption is generally considered safe, it remains potentially at risk with further advancements in quantum technologies. The “harvest now, decrypt later” approach also represents an immediate risk, where encrypted data intercepted today can be stored and decrypted once quantum capabilities advance. These threats could lead to breaches, data manipulation, compromised decision accuracy, and erosion of market trust.

Long-lifecycle data is especially exposed, as future quantum capabilities may retroactively compromise today’s encrypted communications and archives—threatening data integrity, decision-making, and market confidence.

Mitigating Cryptography Risks

While the full implementation of quantum-resistant solutions is still in its early stages, organizations can begin by addressing quantum-induced cryptography risks through two complementary approaches:

1. Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): Employs advanced algorithms resistant to quantum decryption while remaining compatible with existing infrastructure. PQC enhances encryption without requiring quantum hardware
2. Quantum Key Distribution (QKD): Secures encryption key exchanges by leveraging quantum mechanics. Interception attempts are immediately detectable, ensuring unmatched security for critical keys in transit

By combining PQC and QKD, organizations can establish a layered security model that addresses both immediate and long-term risks to sensitive data. This approach provides comprehensive protection against quantum threats, including the current challenge posed by “store now, decrypt later” attacks.

Building resilience must begin without delay to counteract threats that are already present. A proactive approach ensures businesses can adapt to the evolving security landscape with minimal disruption. Key steps include:

1. Collaborate with Vendors: Partner with cryptography specialists to procure and integrate PQC-enabled products, addressing present vulnerabilities.
2. Understand Regulatory Requirements: Align with emerging regulations to ensure compliance and build stakeholder confidence in current security measures.
3. Identify Data at Risk: Audit and classify data, prioritizing sensitive datasets that may already be targeted for future decryption.
4. Adopt a Hybrid Approach: Combine classical and quantum-resistant methods to create defense in depth while quantum-resistant solutions continue to mature.

By acting now, organizations can effectively mitigate quantum threats and safeguard their data against both current and evolving risks.

Projecting the Evolution of Quantum Computing

The evolution of quantum computing will significantly reshape industries over the next two decades. Businesses that align their strategies with quantum’s development timeline can unlock immense value.

Minimal Investments Today can Yield Outsized Returns Tomorrow

A BCG survey on the adoption of quantum technology by businesses gathered insights from C-level executives across various industries and regions spanning mostly Europe and North America. The findings revealed several interesting trends.

Roughly 34% of businesses surveyed by BCG reported investing between $1-5 million in exploring quantum computing applications annually, while 17% were committing upwards of $5 million. With annual global quantum computing investments projected to reach nearly $13bn by 2025, early investments in quantum computing are projected to provide⁷ more than just technological readiness – they are laying the foundation for sustained competitive advantages.

The survey underscores almost no companies regret their quantum investments, and early adopters report higher confidence in their strategic positioning; with a steep majority planning to significantly increase their spending on their quantum journey.

Quantum’s potential as a ‘winner-takes-most’ technology means early adopters might capture a disproportionate share of value. Indeed, early adopters making minimal investments now are positioning themselves to shape industry standards and regulatory frameworks and establish dominant positions in highvalue quantum applications, such as supply chain optimization and drug discovery.

7. BCG Corporate survey

Early Adopters Will Lead Tomorrow’s Industries

Organizations integrating quantum computing early are positioned to define their industries’ future. Evidence suggests that early adopters will capture an outsized share of the technology’s value, using quantum to innovate, optimize, and secure a competitive edge. As quantum computing begins to transition from experimental to operational, the advantages of adoption are increasingly tangible.

The survey mentioned earlier highlights a threefold increase in active proof of concepts (PoCs) since 2022, underlining the growing recognition of quantum potential across sectors. This rapid expansion indicates that businesses are not merely exploring quantum for theoretical gains but are aligning it with practical use cases designed to create value.

Advantages for Early Adopters

Any transformative technology is characterized by a ‘winner-takes-most’ dynamic, where rapid evolution leaves late adopters grappling with significant investments in time and costs to grasp its potential, while early adopters capitalize on their head start to secure a disproportionate share of value. In the case of quantum technology, its adoption lifecycle is driven by the potential for breakthroughs cross-industries, suggesting an even more pronounced future, where early adopters are poised to capture the majority of benefits. This disparity underscores the urgency for businesses to position themselves ahead of the curve.

1. Economic Benefits: Early movers can monopolize economic gains, from reduced operational costs to enhanced product quality. For example, a pharmaceutical firm leveraging quantum could drastically cut development times, beating competitors to market with breakthrough drugs.
2. Market Leadership: Companies that lead quantum adoption are poised to set standards, define best practices, and create barriers to entry. This solidifies their dominance while forcing competitors to follow their lead.
3. Talent and Ecosystems: Early adopters attract top talent and form partnerships within emerging quantum ecosystems, further amplifying their advantage. These collaborations enable them to stay ahead of technological advancements.
4. Long-Term Expertise: As early movers refine their quantum capabilities, they develop proprietary knowledge and infrastructure that competitors cannot easily replicate.

Why Timing is Critical

Businesses that delay adoption face significant challenges in competing with established quantum players. Late adopters may struggle to secure talent in a competitive hiring environment, develop partnerships or access resources already claimed by early movers, or achieve ROI as market dynamics shift to favor companies already proficient in quantum applications.

Understanding the potential impact of quantum on their industry and organization should be companies’ first priority:

1. Where do we stand on the quantum adoption curve? Evaluating their position relative to competitors is critical.
2. What value-driven use cases can we pilot today? Identifying and acting on key PoCs ensures early entry into the quantum space.
3. Are we aligning quantum initiatives with strategic goals? Ensuring that quantum efforts integrate with broader business priorities enhances their relevance and impact.

By acting decisively, organizations can transition from exploratory efforts to measurable impact, ensuring they remain part of the 10% of businesses poised to capture the majority of quantum computing’s value.

Evaluating Impact and Readiness

BCG-SITE’s Impact and Readiness Framework is designed to help organizations evaluate two key factors: the extent to which quantum computing could influence their operations and strategy (Impact) and their preparedness for its transformative potential (Readiness).

The framework achieves this by mapping organizations on the Quantum Adoption Curve, a matrix that positions them across readiness and impact dimensions. This mapping informs tailored recommendations, enabling businesses to align quantum initiatives with their strategic goals and progress effectively along the adoption curve.

Impact examines the potential of quantum technologies to influence an organization’s operations, processes, and competitive positioning. A structured scoring system assesses the impact across three key enablers:

Readiness toward the technology adoption is measured through a structured survey that scores an organization’s profile across three key enablers:

Understand Your Quantum Readiness

Organizations looking to navigate the opportunities and challenges of quantum computing can benefit from a detailed assessment of their readiness and potential impact. BCG’s 20-question web survey provides a structured evaluation, helping businesses position themselves on the Quantum Adoption Curve and identify where they stand relative to peers.

By answering the questions at the Quantum Readiness Assessment decision-makers can access survey results as well as:

Positioning on the Quantum Adoption Curve highlights whether your organization is leading as an innovator, actively piloting as an early adopter, or beginning to explore as part of the early majority. This perspective will enable businesses to better understand their trajectories as quantum technology matures.

By embracing these strategies, businesses can establish themselves as leaders in the quantum revolution, unlocking benefits that extend well beyond technological advancements. Taking early action will not only ensure readiness but also sustained relevance, long term impact, and a lasting competitive edge in a rapidly evolving future.